Tea Party Stats

The non-Journalists over at the fair and balanced word shop had a catchy little article title that caught my attention:

Obama's Mockery of Tea Party Stirs Tax Debate

Still not sure yet what the mockery was, I got sidetracked on the survey results they - and I hate to use the word "reported" - identified in said article. If you are one of the possible three people who have read this here blog you know I am big on cite and verify. So I went looking for the source - a CBS News Poll.

Now there is this thing called bias that creeps in, it is natural, it is expected, it is very difficult to avoid. I am not talking about purposefully being biased, I am talking about bias that comes about simply in the way the data is collected and/or reported.

So you gotta always look at the details, especially the raw numbers and the method. So when the CBS News Poll makes the statement:

Compared to Americans overall, Tea Partiers are considerably.....

They are making a bold - very bold statement - that their sampling and survey accurately reflects the groups as a a whole.

"Americans overall" means all Americans. In the case of the CBS poll it means those Americans that answered their phone and agreed to stay on the line and answer 94 questions. So bam! right there you get what is called participation bias. Who were these Americans? They were picked by a random dialer (RDD) which called both land-line and cell phones (including cell phone reduces the bias) which brings in bias since it excludes those that do not have a phone (poor) or work shifts that keep them away from their phone.

There are lots and lots of these potential bias potholes that phone poles naturally can fall into. On the other-hand, this bias may not make a difference and the views of the participants selected (have phone and time and willingness) may reflect fairly accurately the views of the whole. OK enough with the science talk - get to the point!

So lets assume that the poll participants accurately reflect the population as a whole. There were some interesting results reported in the survey.

• 40% of "All Americans" disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President
• 88% of "Tea Party Supporters" disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President

OK, no real surprise there, that's what I would have expected. But other questions I found kind of enlightening:

• 63% of "All Americans" think Sarah Palin would not be an effective President
• 47% of "Tea Party Supporters" think Sarah Palin would not be an effective President

• 76% of "All Americans" think the benefits from Social Security and Medicare are worth the costs for taxpayers
• 62% of "Tea Party Supporters" think the benefits from Social Security and Medicare are worth the costs for taxpayers

• 30% of "All Americans" want no legal recognition for gay couples
• 40% of "Tea Party Supporters" want no legal recognition for gay couples

• 23% of "All Americans" think abortion should not be permitted
• 32% of "Tea Party Supporters" think abortion should not be permitted

• 74% of "All Americans" think businesses should be able to prohibit customers from openly carrying guns in their establishments
• 65% of "Tea Party Supporters" think businesses should be able to prohibit customers from openly carrying guns in their establishments

• 79% of "All Americans" think it's never justified for citizens to take violent action against the government
• 71% of "Tea Party Supporters" think it's never justified for citizens to take violent action against the government

OK, so maybe I have been a little unfair in my concern and/or criticism about this group. I want to understand them, and I think I do a little bit better after looking over the survey. They aren't as right-wing nutso as they are made out to be, they are, really, no more ignorant and misguided than the population as a whole:

• 58% of "All Americans" think Barack Obama was born in the United States
• 41% of "Tea Party Supporters" think Barack Obama was born in the United States

/sigh